The Math of the Edge: Why We Don't Gamble on Earnings

At Earnings Advantage, we specialize in the most volatile time of the year: Earnings Season.

Most people dismiss trading earnings as gambling—and they’re right, if they’re just taking random shots. A single trade into an earnings report can go either way, much like a single hand of blackjack. But just as the house wins through probabilities over thousands of hands, we create our edge through disciplined, repeatable rules implemented across hundreds of trades and multiple seasons.

We Don’t Trade Opinions. We Trade Cohorts.

We’ve moved beyond one-size-fits-all rules. To find the true source of performance, every trade is tracked across structural cohorts that reveal exactly how a stock reacts to its news. We categorize every setup by:

• Proprietary Trend Classification: Knowing the "state" of the stock before the news hits.

• Sector & S&P 500 Membership: Identifying how different industries absorb volatility.

• Gap Direction & Close Dynamics: Analyzing the immediate market response (Gap Up/Down) and the conviction of the follow-through (Green vs. Red close).

Optimization Through Data

We don't just guess when to sell. We evaluate three distinct exit methodologies within each cohort to isolate which management approach performs best for that specific environment. This allows us to move away from "gut feelings" and toward observed statistical behavior. When the data indicates a high-probability exit profile, we execute.

Proven Performance

In 2025, our systematic approach beat the market, delivering a 21% return compared to the S&P 500’s 17%. While we believe our strategy can outperform the benchmark in most years, we remain committed to the data—letting the numbers, not the noise, dictate our path forward.